Page 27 - Bullion World Volume 5 Issue 06 June 2025

Bullion World | Volume 5 | Issue 06 | June 2025

Nevertheless, the Trump administration, which initially Silver remains in the broader range
announced a base tariff of 10 per cent on all imports Silver prices continued to trade in the broad range
coming into the US and subsequently announced since March 2024. During this period, it has taken
reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries except a few, support in the region of $26 and $27, with upside
which was deferred for 90 days for the countries which capped in the region of $34.25 and $35 levels
has retaliated against the tariff measures.
Silver price has not moved up in tandem with gold
Central banks' buying of gold continues, and they prices even though the Silver industrial demand rose
purchased a total of 244 tons in Q1 of 2025 (source: by four per cent in 2024 to 680.5 million ounces (Moz),
World Gold Council), driven by the uncertain global yet another record high for the fourth consecutive year,
economic environment and a desire to diversify according to the World Silver Survey 2025, published
reserves. by the Silver Institute in April 2025. However, silver
physical demand in 2024 fell by three per cent to 1.6
Gold prices, after having made the historic high of million ounces.
$ 3496 per oz since then have been in a correction
phase and so far, have made a low of $ 3127 per oz Silver industrial demand is likely to be muted in 2025,
on May 15. Now, the prices are within the broadening considering the global economic uncertainties arising
channel formation, facing resistance at higher levels from the US reciprocal tariff measures on other
of $3400 and above per oz. Technically, on the higher countries.
side, resistance is seen in the region of $ 3400 and
3430 per oz and if these levels are breached for two Technically, one can foresee the prices to stay in the
consecutive days then it may signal continuation of the region of $31 and $35 per oz and breadth of those
current bullish phase will probably reach new historic levels decisively on a two-day closing basis to signal
highs in the region of $3600 and $3700 per oz in the further direction of the trend. On the higher side, it
medium term. At the same strong support is seen has the potential to go as high as $38-40 in the short
initially around the $3190-3200 zone and then towards to medium term (3 to 6 months). At the same time
$3123-3070-3030 per oz. downside is capped at around $28.75-$27.50 per oz.

From what has happened so far on the tariff front by
the Trump-led US administration, it is widely believed
as a tactic to bring the countries to negotiate with them
to resolve the trade-related issues amicably. A classic Conclusion:
example is the recent tariff threat to the EU bloc, which Gold continues to shine as a safe-haven asset
was swiftly reversed. amid heightened trade tensions and global
economic uncertainties, bolstered by strong
Risk factors: Watch out for geopolitical tensions, central bank demand and investor sentiment.
which may spiral out of control at any given point in While prices have entered a corrective phase
time. Also, stay focused on the US Fed meetings in after reaching historic highs, technical indicators
the coming few months, which may give a hint on the suggest further upside potential if key resistance
prospects of the US economy, inflation, and interest levels are breached. However, ongoing
rates scenario going forward. geopolitical developments and U.S. monetary
One has to wait and watch out for the ongoing trade policy signals will play a crucial role in shaping
negotiations between the US and China/EU/India, and the medium-term outlook. Meanwhile, silver lags
whether the same will be resolved amicably, for the behind gold in price momentum despite robust
reciprocal tariff period is extended further post July 09, industrial demand, trading within a defined range.
when the deferred tariff time lapses. A breakout on either side will dictate its next
directional move, but muted demand projections
The US and the UK trade deal is a motivating factor and macroeconomic headwinds may limit near-
that the trade deal may be resolved mostly amicably, or term gains. Overall, the precious metals market
a broader agreement reached on further talks during remains highly sensitive to policy actions, global
the remaining intermediary period. negotiations, and macroeconomic cues.

27