Heraeus issues new warning, gold prices head towards the $4,000 mark

Tue Oct 06 2026

World gold prices entered a new correction zone after losing the $4,250/ounce mark, while the $4,000 mark became a monitoring threshold.

The Heraeus report shows that gold prices are under pressure from yields, the USD and oil prices, while expectations of the Fed raising interest rates in October have fallen sharply.

World gold prices fell sharply last week as bond yields, the USD and high oil prices put pressure, while the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates in October has cooled down significantly.

According to the "Precious Metals Rating" report on October 5, 2026 by Heraeus - a German industrial and precious metals group, gold prices fell through the support zone around $4,250/ounce last week. The decline brought gold prices back to the $4,100–$4,200/ounce range, while the low from the beginning of the year around $4,000/ounce is becoming the next important support zone.

Gold closed the week at $4,127/ounce, down 3.82%. During the week, the precious metal at one point reached a peak of $4,226/ounce on October 2, before falling to a peak of $4,111/ounce on September 28.

According to Heraeus, gold prices fell as macroeconomic factors put pressure on the market. US bond yields rose, the USD strengthened, and oil prices remained high, overwhelming gold buying power.

Brent oil prices traded around $100/barrel for most of the week. High energy prices increased concerns that inflation could remain high, thereby increasing the possibility that monetary policy would be maintained in a tightening state for a longer time.

Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has increased to over 5.3%, the highest level since 2002. The real yield on 10-year terms also exceeded 2.9%.

Increased real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold - an uninterested asset. This is one of the factors that puts pressure on gold prices, although buying power still appears around low price zones.

Heraeus assessed that gold's decline took place in the context of an increasingly difficult macroeconomic environment. However, gold prices still showed relatively good resistance to adverse factors.

 Fed interest rate hike expects to cool down

A noteworthy point is that expectations of the Fed raising interest rates in October have fallen sharply after the latest series of US economic data.

According to the report, August PCE data showed that the consumer spending price index increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last year, while the core PCE increased by 3%. Both levels were lower than previous forecasts.

Employment data released at the end of the week also showed that the number of non-farm jobs in September only increased by 29,000, significantly lower than the expected level of 90,000. Employment data for July and August were also adjusted down.

These data significantly reduced expectations of the Fed raising interest rates in October. According to the report, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at the October 28 meeting fell to about 17% on October 2nd, from over 70% at the beginning of last week.

Less stressful interest rate prospects may create more support for gold in the short term. However, high bond yields and oil prices are still significant obstacles for the precious metal.

 The $4,000 mark is a noteworthy support zone

Technically, the fact that gold prices broke through the support zone around $4,250/ounce is a noteworthy sign. The price has now retreated to the $4,100–$4,200/ounce zone, where the market is looking for new buying power.

If selling pressure continues to increase, $4,000/ounce is considered the next major support zone, and is also close to the low from the beginning of the year.

In the opposite direction, gold prices regaining lost support zones may help reduce adjustment pressure and open up the possibility of recovery. However, in the context that US bond yields and the USD are still high, the recovery momentum of precious metals may face many challenges.

Source: https://news.laodong.vn