Is this the time to reload gold and silver? Here’s what experts say

Fri Aug 28 2026

Gold’s sharp rebound above $4,600 an ounce has revived the question for investors: is this the time to get back into gold and silver after the recent correction?

The case for doing so is gaining traction. Gold returned 9% in August, around five times the broader equity market’s return, while gold miners gained 21%, according to Vallum Capital’s August Macro Grid Chartbook. Vallum Capital in a latest note suggests that investors should “reload” gold and silver, arguing that the correction did not break the precious-metals thesis.

The latest rally has been helped by falling US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar after the US Treasury announced larger purchases of longer-dated government bonds. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, while fiscal concerns are reviving the currency-debasement argument.

Why Vallum is bullish

The firm in a recent report points to a sharp rise in central-bank demand. Central banks bought 288.9 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, up 411% quarter-on-quarter, even as Western ETF outflows reached 44.8 tonnes and jewellery demand fell 17%.

Supply, meanwhile, has barely responded to higher prices. Mine production rose just 2%, recycled gold fell 6% and total supply was flat, Vallum said.

The firm also argues that gold’s role as a hedge against currency debasement is becoming more important as global debt expands. It estimates above-ground gold at around $31 trillion, against $102 trillion of major central-bank money supply and roughly $350 trillion of global debt.

Silver adds another leg to the bullish case. From 2021 to 2026, silver has gained 263%, against 164% for gold. Yet the gold-silver ratio remains around 69 times, above its long-run median of 45–50x, Vallum said.

Don’t chase the rally blindly

But not all view the situation the same. Hitesh Jain, strategist, institutional equities research at YES Securities in a recent report noted that he sees the latest move differently. He describes it as a tactical reprieve rather than a structural turnaround for gold.

The US Treasury’s decision to at least double long-end buybacks to $4 billion per operation has pushed long-term yields lower, giving gold a near-term boost. But Jain argues that the intervention does not solve the underlying US fiscal problem because new issuance will replace securities bought back.

His bigger concern is the global capex cycle. Governments and companies are competing for capital to fund AI infrastructure, defence, semiconductors, energy and reshoring, potentially keeping the cost of capital structurally high.

“Over the next three to five years, we expect Gold to underperform equities and industrial metals,” Jain said.

Indian investors remain cautious

The domestic flow picture also suggests investors are not blindly chasing the gold rally. Precious-metal fund inflows fell to Rs 4,084 crore in July from Rs 8,680 crore in June, according to Vallum. At the same time, Rs 1.40 lakh crore flowed into money-market funds in July, after Rs 65,530 crore of outflows in June. Between January 2025 and January 2026, Indian retail investors put around Rs 93,000 crore into gold funds and ETFs, with a record Rs 33,837 crore flowing in during January alone.

For investors looking to reload, experts suggest that the key markers remain real yields, the dollar, fiscal policy and central-bank buying.

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/