China’s secretive gold purchases help fuel record rally

Fri Nov 14 2025

CHINA’S unreported gold purchases could be more than 10 times its official figures, as the country quietly tries to diversify away from the US dollar, say analysts, highlighting the increasingly opaque sources of demand behind bullion’s record-breaking rally.

Publicly reported buying by China’s central bank has been so low this year – 1.9 tonnes purchased in August, 1.9 tonnes in July and 2.2 tonnes in June – that few in the market believe the official figures.

Analysts at Societe Generale estimate based on trade data that China’s total purchases could reach as much as 250 tonnes this year, or more than a third of total global central bank demand.

The scale of the country’s unreported purchases highlights the growing challenges facing traders trying to work out where prices go next, in a market increasingly dominated by central bank purchases.

“China is buying gold as part of their de-dollarisation strategy,” said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, adding that he does not try to guess how much gold the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is buying.

“Unlike oil, where you can track it with satellites, with gold you can’t. There’s just no way to know where this stuff goes and who is buying it.”

Traders say they are turning to alternative sources of data to gauge demand, such as orders for freshly cast 400-ounce bars with consecutive serial numbers – which are typically refined in Switzerland or South Africa, shipped via London and flown to China – for evidence of the country’s purchases.

“This year, people are really not believing the official figures, especially about China,” said Bruce Ikemizu, director of the Japan Bullion Market Association, who believes China’s current gold reserves are nearly 5,000 tonnes, double the level it publicly reports.

Central banks have been buying up huge quantities of bullion in recent years, fuelling a rally that has pushed the price above US$4,300 per troy ounce. World Gold Council (WGC) data shows that over the past decade, gold’s share of global reserves outside the US has climbed from 10 to 26 per cent, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar.

Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/