LBMA Precious Metals Market Report: Q3 2025

Wed Oct 08 2025

In terms of all four precious metals prices, the third quarter of 2025 – and indeed the first nine months of the year – was characterised by an exceptional series of positive numbers.

The core statistics are as follow:

Each of these metals exhibited different dynamics when responding to, for example, varying investment, industrial or commercial demands. However, one key driver was common to all four, which was particularly consequential during the past few months: was the strength or weakness of the US dollar.

Price Drivers

For example, while as stated the gold price gained over 44% in dollar terms to the end of Q3, its gain in sterling was 34.3%, and against a stronger currency still, the Swiss franc, the rise was 26.0%. In other words, a significant proportion of the impact of recent economic and financial turmoil on gold (and silver) prices, was indirect. Among these of these indirect influences were the monthly US labour market statistics which proved difficult for the markets to interpret.

As Deloitte’s Q3 US Economic Forecast noted, “The [US] labor market has weakened since April. Average monthly nonfarm payroll gains were just 30,000 during the three months through August 2025, far below the average gain of 168,000 in 2024. On the upside, the unemployment rate remained at a relatively low 4.3% in August, just 0.1 percentage point higher than a year earlier.” The problem is while a weakening labour market suggests economic deterioration, low unemployment numbers suggest strength but also reinforce concerns about inflation, with the latter tending to weaken the dollar and thus to help gold prices.

Among the more obvious direct influences driving the gold price during the quarter were continuing uncertainties regarding President Trump’s trade tariffs – not just about their actual or predicted impact, but about whether they were, in the end, going to be imposed at all.

A case in point was the early August flurry in the gold market when the Financial Times commodity page led with: “US gold futures surge to record high after Trump tariff blindsides global market … Unexpected levy from Trump administration could redraw trade in the metal, analysts and investors warn.” Among other issues, the ensuing article noted: “In a sign of the disruption unleashed on the market, US gold futures on New York’s Comex exchange diverged sharply from spot prices, commanding a premium of more than $100 per ounce on Friday.”

On this occasion, the ‘disruption’ was short-lived, and the White House announced it would issue an executive order clarifying the US stance on gold bar tariffs (i.e. explaining they were not to be imposed). This ‘order’ was finally confirmed on 8th September. At the time of writing, the position with silver remains less certain.

Geopolitical Tremors

As has become the norm, geopolitics – notably Russia/Ukraine war and Israel/Palestine – maintained its role as a key driver of the gold price during the quarter. The prevailing trend was rising prices on the back of fragile, short-term ceasefires punctuated by new attacks. These were tempered by windows of hope occasioned, for example, by the Trump/Putin ‘Alaska Summit’ on 16th August and President Zelensky’s subsequent White House visit on 19th August. These events prompted a brief fall in the gold price, which had come close to $3,400 earlier in August ($3,397.10 pm 8/8), to $3,327.25 (am 20/8) before upward momentum reasserted itself and the price broke $3,400 for the first time ever on 28th August.

As always, the US Federal Reserve proved to be a major influence on gold and silver but during Q3 the usual effect of traders anticipating a change in policy rates was bolstered by a simmering battle between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. On the back of global fixed income markets signalling severe disapproval of the possibility of Powell’s dismissal (although it is questionable whether Trump has that power), the President confirmed Jerome Powell would be staying in post. This announcement, which coincided with the Putin and Zelensky meetings in mid-August, prompted a strengthening of the US dollar, and as above, a concomitant short-term decline in the gold price.

However, the price lifted when President Trump, alleging mortgage fraud, attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, one of President Biden’s appointees. This move was blocked, at least temporarily, when the US Supreme Court ruled that Ms Cook should stay on until it heard arguments in January next year.

Beyond these political machinations, the gold price continued to be supported through the quarter by central banks, institutional investors and, significantly, by ETFs where, according to the Financial Times, a record $60bn net ‘flowed in’ during the first three quarters of the year.

Meanwhile, according to the World Gold Council, central banks “added a net 15t to global gold reserves in August … This is broadly in line with monthly net purchases between March and June and signals a return to buying form after global reserves were unchanged in July.”

The fast rise in the gold price in Q3, and indeed during the year, appeared – without naming names – to have caught a number of forecasters off-guard, as this year a number of teams have had to play catch-up, with an average price for the remainder of the year suggested to be $3,215 (HSBC, in early July), $3,324 (analyst sentiment check by LBMA, mid-July) up to $3,600 (CIBC, later in July) then $4,000 (Fidelity, end July) etc.

The last word, however, should go to Morgan Stanley whose investment analysts have decided that the old 60/40 (equities/bonds) conservative investment model should now be replaced with a new structure: 60/20/20 (equities, bonds, gold). Only time will tell if this is indeed a ‘conservative’ structure.

Silver

In Benjamin Disraeli’s novel, The Young Duke, we find the following: “A dark horse which had never been thought of, and which the careless St. James had never even observed in the list, rushed past the grandstand in sweeping triumph.” The question is, will this description apply to silver as 2025 draws to a close? Certainly, the metal’s performance has proved impressive thus far, particularly as the price gained over 26% in Q3 alone to come within touching distance of $50.00 hurdle which was cleared once – but only in US markets - on 11th January 1980 during the height of the notorious Hunt Brothers’ silver squeeze.

The divergent paths commonly taken by silver and gold are usually explained by the fact that 50% or more of annual silver consumption is for industrial purposes including technology and electronics such as solar panels, and for decorative items such as silver plate. However, in 2025, many commentators believe silver’s fortunes have been more closely linked to gold than usual, with both metals reacting to global fiscal deficits, economic uncertainty, the ongoing threat of inflation and other global financial ailments.

Furthermore, here, as with gold, ETFs have taken an important role with some estimates suggesting a net global inflow of some 95m oz (2954.8t) in the first half of the year, which, if it continues through the end of Q4, will represent nearly a quarter of global annual production.

Among other notable buyers of silver, India is maintaining an important role albeit at a slightly lower level than in 2024 when some 7,669t were imported. For full-year 2025, estimates suggest figures of 5,500-6,000t with this decline being a reaction to significantly higher prices, i.e. the same reason that gold consumption is likely to be down in the late September / October festival season.

Gold and Silver Held in London Vaults

As at end September 2025, the amount of gold held in London vaults was 8,841 tonnes (a 0.11% increase on previous month), valued at $1.087 trillion, which equates to approximately 707,272 gold bars.

There were also 24,581 tonnes of silver (a 0.3% decrease on previous month), valued at $36.5 billion, which equates to approximately 819,379 silver bars.

Q3 2025 - Trade Data

Gold - Q3 2025

2025 YTD

Performance 1 Jul - 30 Sep

+12.6%

1 Jan – 30 Sep

+30.87%

Price High – 29 Sep p.m.

$3,826.85

Price High – 29 Sep p.m.

$3,826.85

Price Low – 9 Jul a.m.

$3,288.05

Price Low – 6 Jan a.m.

$2,631.80

Low/High Range

14.08%

Low/High Range

31.23%

Weekly Volume High

253.92 mn toz

Weekly Volume High

308.01 mn toz

Weekly Value High

$900.66 bn

Weekly Value High

$953.55 bn

Average Daily Volume

44.17 mn toz

Average Daily Volume

46.62 mn toz

Average Daily Value

$153.36 bn

Average Daily Value

$148.94 bn

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver - Q3 2025

 

 

2025 YTD

Performance 1 Jul - 30 Sep

20.94%

2 Jan – 30 Sep

+34.04%

Price High – 29 Sep

$46.95

Price High – 29 Sep

$46.95

Price Low – 31 July

$36.22

Price Low – 2 Jan

$29.41

Low/High Range

22.85%

Low/High Range

37.37%

Weekly Volume High

3.44 bn oz

Weekly Volume High

3.55 bn oz

Weekly Value High

$144.84 bn

Weekly Value High

$144.84 bn

Average Daily Volume

597.17 mn oz

Average Daily Volume

584.78 mn oz

Average Daily Value

$23.44 bn

Average Daily Value

$20.37 bn

 

Source: https://www.lbma.org.uk/