Deutsche Bank’s Gold Road Map: The Explosive Phase Is Not Over

Tue Aug 04 2026

Gold has spent much of the past two months coiling between roughly $4,000 and $4,100. To a trader, that sort of price action can feel like the market has gone dormant. Deutsche Bank’s Michael Hsueh sees something different: not the end of the move, but a pause inside a price regime that remains statistically explosive. The distinction is uncomfortable for both camps. Bulls must accept that explosive markets can correct violently; bears must explain why the correction has so far refused to behave like history’s nastier endings.

Takeaways by Dark Side of the Boom™

• Deutsche Bank precious-metals strategist Michael Hsueh argues that gold remains inside the “explosive” price phase that began in August 2024, even after the correction from its 2026 peak.
• The historical warning is real: previous explosive episodes have often ended with substantial drawdowns. But Deutsche Bank’s work suggests the current correction has been unusually muted and may already have found a floor near $3,900/oz.
• Commodity-relative valuation produces the bearish outlier, implying gold could be worth roughly $2,600/oz. Deutsche Bank gives that framework less weight than its financial-variable fair-value model, which points toward approximately $4,700/oz by year-end.
• Record official-sector demand remains the structural backstop. Central-bank buying reached about $45 billion in real terms during Q2 2026, helping explain why old valuation anchors have not pulled gold back to earth.

Source: https://thedarksideoftheboom.substack.com