Gold miners set to deliver strong Q2 results despite seasonally weaker output, analysts say

Gold producers are expected to deliver improved financial results in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a sharp increase in gold prices despite muted production growth and rising costs, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

The analysts expect a solid recovery in earnings and free cash flow (FCF) for the quarter, with stronger momentum anticipated in the second half of the year.

“In Q2, gold producers are set to report seasonally weaker operating results, but sharply higher average gold prices of 15% quarter-over-quarter point to a stepwise improvement in earnings per share (EPS) and FCF this quarter,” they wrote.

The average gold price reached $3,287 per ounce during the quarter, while silver and copper prices rose by 6% and 1%, respectively.

Production across RBC’s coverage is expected to increase by just 1% quarter-over-quarter, while all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are forecast to rise 5% to $1,620 per ounce due to higher royalties and a return to more normalized sustaining capital.

“Production is 2H weighted for the sector,” the firm added, with a 9% increase expected in the second half of the year.

Regardless, RBC expects an 18% increase in earnings and a 34% rise in FCF for Q2.

Capital allocation remains a top priority for investors. “Low financial leverage and high FCF position the sector to deliver elevated excess cash,” the analysts wrote.

The firm expects increased share buybacks, particularly among senior and large intermediate producers.

Senior gold producers

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX:AEM): RBC expects financial results to beat consensus, supported by deferred sales and working capital recovery. Production may decline slightly due to higher sustaining capital. Expanded buybacks and execution at Malartic Odyssey remain key focuses.
Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX, NYSE:GOLD): Barrick’s earnings could come in below consensus, affected by seasonally high taxes and potential Loulo impairments. Operational improvement is expected at Pueblo Viejo and Lumwana, and updates on asset sales and copper projects are anticipated.
Gold Fields Limited (ADR) (NYSE:GFI): FCF is forecast to improve on ramp-up progress at Salares Norte and recovery at South Deep and Gruyere. Salares remains the central investor focus. Updates on Windfall and Tarkwa licensing are also expected.
Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX:K): Lower output due to Tasiast downtime is set to be offset by high expected FCF. Lower Q1 cash taxes support a sequential improvement, according to the analysts.
Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM, TSX:NGT, ASX:NEM, ETR:NMM): EPS is expected to beat consensus, with FCF impacted by tax payments and working capital needs. Recent asset sales will support elevated buybacks, RBC believes.

Mid-tier and emerging producers

New Gold Inc. (TSX:NGD): RBC sees a beat with EPS of $0.32 vs. $0.27 consensus, driven by improved throughput. Q1 was impacted by downtime and rainfall. AISC is expected to increase due to catch-up capital.
Coeur Mining Inc (TSX:CDM): EPS is forecast at $0.20, driven by Las Chispas' first full quarter and stronger grades at Kensington and Palmarejo. Rochester recoveries also contribute. Focus will be on deleveraging and the recently launched buyback program, the analysts believe.
Eldorado Gold Corp (TSX:ELD): RBC sees a beat with EPS of $0.53 vs. $0.45 consensus, supported by stronger output at Lamaque and Olympias. Kisladag stacking adds to growth, while progress at Skouries remains a major catalyst.
B2Gold Corp. (TSX:BTO): Q2 is expected to be modest, with stronger results forecast in 2H25. RBC sees upside from grade recovery and operational stability, with Iimprovement likely to be back-end loaded.
IAMGOLD Corp (TSX:IMG): RBC anticipates better 2H results from the ongoing ramp-up at Côté Gold. Q2 is expected to be stable and cost performance will be closely watched.
Equinox Gold (TSX:EQX): Production and financial results are expected to strengthen in the second half. Cost improvements and higher throughput should aid margins, analysts believe.
Torex Gold Resources Inc (TSX:TXG): RBC expects momentum to build into the second half. Execution and cost control are key themes, with Q2 forecast to show stable output.
Alamos Gold Inc (TSX:AGI, NYSE:AGI): Alamos may revise AISC guidance higher in Q2. RBC expects stronger results later in the year, with capital spending expected to stabilize.
G Mining Ventures Corp (TSX:GMIN, OTCQX:GMINF): RBC expects G Mining to report strong Q2 results, with EPS forecast at $0.32 versus consensus at $0.27. Throughput is recovering following Q1 disruptions. The Tocantinzinho (TZ) project remains 56% 2H-weighted, with AISC set to rise due to stripping and equipment costs. Meanwhile, early works at Oko West are underway ahead of final permitting and financing, with a construction decision expected in the second half of the year.

Source: https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/