Bank of America Positions Gold as Primary 2026 Hedge and Performance Driver
Mon Jan 05 2026
BofA Highlights Gold’s Role in Portfolios
Investing.com – Bank of America sees gold as a key hedge and potential return driver in 2026. Tightening market conditions and strong earnings sensitivity to the metal support this view.
“Gold continues to stand out as a hedge and alpha source,” said analyst Lawson Winder. He added that silver may appeal more to investors willing to take higher risk for extra upside.
Production and Cost Outlook
BofA bases its 2026 outlook on falling supply and rising costs in the gold sector. Winder expects the 13 North American companies he covers to produce 19.2 million ounces, a 2% decline. He believes market forecasts for output are too optimistic.
Average all-in sustaining costs are projected to rise 3% to about $1,600 per ounce. This level is slightly above general market expectations.
|
Metric (2026, BofA coverage) |
Forecast |
|
Total gold production |
19.2 million ounces (down 2%) |
|
Average all-in sustaining costs |
~$1,600 per ounce (up 3%) |
|
Total EBITDA |
~$65 billion (up 41%) |
Earnings Leverage and Price Forecasts
Winder expects a strong improvement in profitability for the group. Total EBITDA could rise 41% in 2026, reaching around $65 billion.
Gold is projected to average $4,538 per ounce in real terms. Silver, platinum, and palladium are also expected to see higher prices, reflecting a positive outlook for precious metals overall.
Exceptional 2025 Performance Sets the Stage
The bank’s 2026 thesis follows an outstanding 2025. Gold rose 65%, and silver surged 148%. Equities linked to precious metals outperformed bullion.
Gold peaked at $4,533 per ounce, while silver reached $79 per ounce. Silver’s late-2025 rally reflected a catch-up move after lagging gold earlier in the cycle.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Points to Further Silver Upside
Winder notes the current gold-to-silver ratio of about 59x suggests silver may still outperform gold. Historical lows—32x in 2011 and 14x in 1980—imply much higher silver prices if similar dynamics repeat.
|
Gold-to-silver ratio reference |
Implied silver price |
|
2011 low ratio (32x) |
~$135 per ounce |
|
1980 low ratio (14x) |
~$309 per ounce |
Using the 2011 low, silver could reach roughly $135 per ounce. Using the 1980 low, it could rise to about $309 per ounce.
Source: https://www.tradingpedia.com/