RBC says gold still shines as central banks and investors stick with it

Thu July 10 2025

Gold has held up remarkably well in recent weeks, despite markets regaining some composure and equities moving higher. What’s interesting, RBC says, is the “cognitive dissonance” in markets. Equities are rising, but so are gold allocations.

Instead of seeing this as a contradiction, analysts argue that it shows gold working as intended, a strategic hedge, not just a panic button. Since April, gold has mostly traded between $3,200 and $3,400 an ounce, and RBC expects that range to hold through to year-end, with the potential to widen slightly.

Its high scenario for the fourth quarter is $3,496, while the base case is just above $3,100. Central banks are still a key pillar of demand. RBC expects them to buy around 876 tonnes this year.

That is below the 1,000-tonne average of the past three years, but well ahead of the long-term trend.  And while that forecast is deliberately conservative, it could be beaten if buying from unidentified sources, already included in official sector data, turns out to be as strong as in recent years.

Investor flows also remain solid. Gold-backed exchange-traded products have regained levels last seen in 2023, and RBC expects total investment demand this year to offset several years of net outflows.

Whether it’s hedge allocations or outright risk-off buying, the bank sees the momentum continuing.

Source: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/