The World’s Gold Producers Are Starting to Hoard Their Own Gold

Tue Oct 06 2026

Gold-producing countries are increasingly keeping more of their own metal, expanding domestic refining, taxing exports and directing local production toward central-bank reserves.  Central-bank demand remains a structural driver of the gold bull market, with Goldman estimating purchases near 91 tonnes per month and forecasting gold at $5,400 per ounce by end-2027. Higher interest rates are weighing on gold in the short term, but de-dollarization, sanctions concerns and tighter internationally available supply could provide powerful long-term support.

For most of modern history, the gold trade worked one way: emerging-market mines produced the metal, shipped it abroad, and London and New York handled much of the refining and trading. The article argues that this arrangement is now changing. According to a report in Nikkei Asia, countries across Asia are seeking to capture more value from their gold production by refining domestically, taxing exports and having central banks buy local production. Nikkei describes this as a new form of resource nationalism, which could put upward pressure on gold prices over the medium to long term. The article identifies two major drivers: declining confidence in the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency and concerns that dollar assets can be frozen through sanctions.

From Vientiane To Jakarta: Everyone Wants A Refinery Now

Laos produced roughly 12 tonnes of mined gold in 2025, making it the sixth-largest producer in Asia, according to the World Gold Council and Metals Focus. The country estimates its reserves at 500–1,000 tonnes. Historically, much of Laos's gold left the country as ore through official and unofficial channels. In 2024, the government established the Lao Bullion Bank, which aims to refine local gold domestically, increase gold's share of the country's foreign-exchange reserves and provide citizens with a trusted way to store savings.

Laotian Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone has described gold development as a key priority for strengthening the country's economic foundation.  Indonesia, the world's 10th-largest gold producer at more than 100 tonnes a year, is going further. It announced an export tax of up to 15% on gold, effective in 2026, because domestic supply cannot keep up with local investment demand.

At approximately $4,150 per ounce, a 15% duty would amount to about $620 per ounce, effectively discouraging exports.

China, the world's largest gold producer at a little over 380 tonnes annually, is also a major importer. Market analyst Jeff Toshima told Nikkei that, as a rule, taking gold out of China is restricted.

The trend extends beyond Asia. Madagascar's central bank has been buying domestically produced gold since the early 2020s under a Gold Purchase Program. Ghana, the world's sixth-largest producer, signed an MoU with the World Gold Council in July aimed at reducing illegal mining and ensuring that the benefits of Ghana's gold resources reach its communities and nation.

The article argues that this is narrowing the traditional pipeline of inexpensive gold ore to Western refiners. Metals Focus Managing Director Nikos Kavalis said the trend would affect major international refiners' ability to source gold.

The Sanctions Premium

The article connects the trend to the freezing of Russia's foreign-exchange reserves by the U.S. and its allies in 2022.

The argument is that reserve managers outside the Western alliance have increasingly recognised that dollar assets can become vulnerable depending on their relationship with Washington. ANZ's Geullim Yum told Nikkei that as the dollar-centred system comes under scrutiny, gold is gaining importance because it is insulated from the political and fiscal policies of any single country.

The dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves fell to 57% in 2025, more than five percentage points lower than in 2022. Meanwhile, 62% of reserve managers in the 2026 central-bank survey expect the dollar's share to continue declining moderately over the next five years, while 84% expect gold to account for a larger share of their reserves.

SocGen says central banks, including China, are buying gold on price dips while continuing to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings. China's gold reserves have risen 20% since 2022 and 122% since 2015 to 2,345 tonnes, while its Treasury holdings have fallen 41% since 2020.

China: Officially 20 Tonnes, Unofficially Much More

Officially, the People's Bank of China added 20 tonnes in August, marking its 22nd consecutive month of net purchases. According to Nikkei, this is China's longest consecutive purchasing streak since comparable data began in December 1999.

Goldman's central-bank nowcast estimated 44 tonnes of official buying in July, with China accounting for 35 tonnes—roughly twice what Beijing officially reported.

On a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven estimate that central banks are now buying around 91 tonnes per month, more than five times the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes.

China's private-sector demand is also strong. China's non-monetary gold imports reached 997 tonnes from January through July, up 80% year-on-year, followed by another 142 tonnes in August.

Between March and July, China's imports more than doubled from the previous five months. This helped offset a 228-tonne decline in Indian imports and a 253-tonne shift toward ETF selling outside China.

JPMorgan's Market Intelligence desk similarly attributed gold's resilience to two factors: ETFs adding about 180 tonnes since mid-July and strong Chinese buying, with imports exceeding 1,000 tonnes.

Goldman: Central Banks Are Doing "Nearly All" The Heavy Lifting

Goldman Sachs has maintained its $5,400/oz end-2027 forecast, despite the Federal Reserve's rate hike.

The bank says continued central-bank diversification is the main structural driver of its positive gold outlook and could account for nearly all of the expected 23% appreciation through the end of 2027.

Goldman has raised its central-bank demand assumption to an average of 60 tonnes per month through 2026–27, compared with previous assumptions of 50 tonnes per month in 2026 and 40 tonnes in 2027.

The article argues that if producer countries increasingly retain their own gold through domestic refining, export taxes or central-bank purchase programs, this could remove additional supply from international markets and create further upside risk for gold prices.

For the near term, however, Goldman has reduced its year-end 2026 fair value to $4,650/oz from $4,900/oz, although this remains above spot prices.

So Why Is Gold Down 12%?

The article stresses that structural bullish factors do not necessarily translate into immediate price gains.

Gold reached a record above $5,500 in January, nearly reached $4,700 in late August, and stood at around $4,110 on September 28, down 12% from its late-summer peak.

The main short-term pressure has come from the Federal Reserve. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in more than three years, with at least one additional hike expected before year-end.

Goldman's Adam Gillard said that when cash offers a large positive real return, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes difficult to ignore. He also said China's physical demand can support gold during a sell-off but is not sufficient by itself to sustain a rally.

Goldman's commodities desk described the situation as rates holding gold back while remaining constructive over the long term, with strong support around $4,000/oz.

The bearish view is also presented. BofA's technicians warned that gold could be vulnerable in the second half of 2026, while Jefferies argued that gold has again become more closely linked to real interest rates.

Bottom Line

The article argues that the gold story is increasingly shifting from demand alone to both demand and supply.

Central banks have been diversifying away from the dollar and increasing gold holdings. Now, gold-producing countries are also increasingly choosing to refine, tax, store and retain their own gold, rather than sending as much of their production into Western markets.

Goldman estimates central banks are buying around 91 tonnes per month, while producer countries retaining more domestic supply could further tighten internationally available gold.

In the short term, however, U.S. interest rates and Federal Reserve policy remain the dominant price drivers. Over several years, the article argues that continued de-dollarization, central-bank buying and producer-country hoarding could provide significant structural support for gold.

Source: https://oilprice.com/